Forex - Weekly outlook: 10.23 - 10.27
The dollar rose against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday as hopes for U.S. tax reforms were boosted after the Senate approved a budget measure that will allow Republicans to pursue tax cuts without Democratic support.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.61% at 93.57 in late trade. It was its largest one day gain since October 2.
The index ended the week up 0.69%, its fifth weekly increase in six weeks.
President Donald Trump's tax reform plans cleared a critical hurdle on Thursday after Senate Republicans adopted a budget for the next fiscal year and included a procedure that Republicans plan to use to rewrite the tax code without support from the Democratic Party.
Investors expect a fiscal boost to push up inflation, adding pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.
But Republicans have yet to produce a tax reform bill amid divisions over what cuts to make and how to pay for them and analysts have warned that the White House still faces a long battle to push through its agenda.
The dollar was at three-month highs against the safe haven yen, with USD/JPY up 0.88% at 113.52 in late trade.
The greenback rose to five-month highs against the traditional safe haven Swiss franc, with USD/CHF climbing 0.81% to 0.9842.
The euro was lower against the stronger dollar, with EUR/USD sliding 0.57% to 1.1784.
Sterling was broadly higher amid hopes for a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations after British Prime Minister Theresa May met with European Union leaders in Brussels.
GBP/USD was up 0.21% to 1.3185 in late trade.
The pound was also higher against the euro, with EUR/GBP shedding 0.83% to trade at 0.8931.
The New Zealand dollar dropped almost 1% on Friday and NZD/USD ended the week down 2.75% after a surprise election outcome sparked concerns that the new government could pursue policies that would weaken the currency.
In the week ahead, investors will be watching the European Central Bank meeting for further details on plans to scale back its massive stimulus program.
Markets will keep an eye on a preliminary reading of third-quarter U.S. growth to further assess the impact of recent hurricanes on economic activity and how it could affect the Federal Reserve’s view on monetary policy.
Monday, October 23
Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
Tuesday, October 24
The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.
Wednesday, October 25
Australia is to release data on inflation.
The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
The UK is to release a preliminary estimate of third quarter growth.
The U.S. is to release reports on durable goods orders and new home sales.
The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
Thursday, October 26
New Zealand is to publish trade data.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to report on initial jobless claims and pending home sales.
Friday, October 27
Japan is to release its latest inflation figures.
The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on third quarter growth.