Forex - Weekly outlook: 09.03 - 09.07
The us-canada free trade talks collapsed on August 31, the pre-set deadline for talks, and the two sides decided to resume talks on Wednesday (September 5), but trump has "unilaterally" declared that a New Deal would not be reached.
New Zealand's finance ministry released its monthly economic data on Sept. 3, keeping its GDP growth forecast for the second quarter unchanged at 0.7%.
Trade in CME's foreign exchange, metals and energy contracts will end at 01:00 GMT on September 4, while trading in ICE's brent crude oil contract will end at 01:30 GMT on Monday. U.S. API crude inventories, "" small nonfarm" "ADP and EIA crude inventory data will be delayed until Thursday, September 6 (Thursday) 04:30, 20:15 and 23:00, respectively.
The Australian dollar fell nearly 20 points to 0.7169, its lowest since December 2016.
In August, manufacturing PMI readings from industrial powerhouses such as the eurozone, Germany and France fell to some extent, not just in the us. But unexpectedly, as Europe and the United States suffered setbacks, manufacturing PMI data from Asian countries -- Japan and South Korea -- reversed upward.
The Hong Kong monetary authority spent hk $33.1bn to intervene in the currency market in August as the Hong Kong dollar fell to a level guaranteed by weaker parties. Analysts believe the fed could raise interest rates in September, which would lead to outflows from Hong Kong and a weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, which the hkma may have to keep buying. Bank of east Asia's senior currency strategist in Hong Kong believes the hkma is likely to drain liquidity at a faster pace in September as outflows intensify as the fed continues to raise interest rates.
According to Forexlive, Italy's debt problem is the euro zone's most pressing problem. On Friday, fitch lowered its outlook for Italy to negative, putting pressure on Italian bonds. The developed economies of the rest of the world have improved dramatically since 2011, but the eurozone has "regressed" to the debt problem and has yet to offer a clear solution to Italy's debt problem. More to the point, Italy's GDP has yet to recover from the crisis. The Italian two-year yield was 1.49 percent, while the German yield was -0.61 percent, the market said.
In a report released on Monday, ubs estimated that Britain's GDP is now 2.1 percent lower, investment is 4 percent lower, inflation is 1.5 percent higher and consumption is 1.7 percent lower than the "remain" scenario, according to lianhe zaobao. While the UK did not fall into recession as some had predicted after the brexit vote in 2016, growth has lagged behind that of most major similar countries. Ubs said the global upturn over the past two years masked some of the worst effects of brexit, making "" growth sideways rather than vertically downward" ".
Foreign exchange market reaction may be relatively muted as expectations for Wednesday's rate hike from Canada's central bank declined. If the central bank signals to the market that it will raise interest rates in October, that will put moderate upward pressure on the Canadian dollar. In addition, we remain negative on the outlook for Canadian economic growth and expect the bank of Canada to raise interest rates more slowly than the fed.
The rba has recently stressed that stability is the best thing it can do for consumers and businesses in times of turmoil. In addition, trade frictions continue to pose external risks, and last month's change of prime minister surprised markets. Moreover, recent data confirm that GDP is growing at an annual rate of 3 per cent and that unemployment will continue to fall towards 5 per cent. Therefore, considering all these factors, the rba is expected to maintain its neutral policy, with the Australian dollar at around 0.72.
Monday, September 3
Trading in ICE's brent crude oil contract ended at 01:30 Beijing time on September 4.
CME's trading of its foreign exchange, metals and energy contracts ended at 01:00 GMT on September 4.
The New York stock exchange is closed on May Day.
Tuesday, September 4
Chicago fed President Charles Evans participated in the global macroeconomic outlook symposium at the bank of Argentina's "monetary policy normalization" monetary and banking conference.
The rba releases its interest rate resolution and policy statement.
Reserve bank of Australia chairman Philip Lowe addressed the central bank dinner.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney and monetary policy committee members Andy Haldane, Silvana Tenreyro and Michael Saunders talked about the central bank's decision to raise interest rates in August and its latest inflation report.
Chicago fed President Charles Evans participated in the "central bank challenge" roundtable at the bank of Argentina's monetary and banking conference on "normalizing monetary policy."
Wednesday, September 5
John Williams, President of the New York fed and the committee's permanent select committee, visited buffalo and Niagara Falls in New York to meet with business, community development, education and political leaders.
The Swedish central bank holds a meeting of its standing council and monetary policy.
ECB executive board member Peter Praet speaks at financial BBS, a European think tank on financial regulation.
St. Louis fed President James Bullard gave a briefing on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Real Return XII, an inflation event at the European monetary journal conference.
Canada's central bank announces its interest rate decision.
Thursday, September 6
Minneapolis fed President Neel Kashkari attends a rally hosted by Montana state university BBS.
Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta federal reserve, the committee's 2018 voting committee, speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy during a fireside chat at the global affairs committee in Chicago.
Sweden's central bank governor, Stefan Ingves, and its head of monetary policy, Jesper Hansson, held a news conference.
ECB executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speaks at financial BBS, a European think tank on financial regulation.
The committee's permanent voting committee, New York fed President John Williams and Paul Tesluk, dean of the school of management at the state university of New York at buffalo, participated in a fireside chat focused on the region's efforts with the national economy and the New York fed's outreach efforts.
Elvira Nabiullina, governor of Russia's central bank, delivers a speech at the international monetary fund's annual condessus central bank lecture.
Friday, September 7
Boston fed President Eric Rosengren delivers a presentation at the bank's 62nd annual economic conference on "the consequences of prolonged low interest rates"
2018 FOMC member Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland fed, participates in a panel discussion at the Boston fed meeting.