Forex - Weekly outlook: 11.05 - 11.09
Central bank meetings are intensive, and the central bank such as the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the New Zealand Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions to issue interest rate decisions. There is also a large wave of PMI and UK GDP data, China's foreign exchange reserves, trade accounts, and CPI and PPI. Tr
On November 5th, China's first China International Import Expo will kick off in Shanghai. This event is quite interesting in the context of the tightening trade situation between China and the United States and the downward pressure on China's economy.
On November 6, the US mid-term elections, the so-called Congress, will hold a general election. The Republican Party and the Democratic Party spare no effort to win over the voters for the control of the House and Senate.
US President Donald Trump continued to fight his "immigration card" and said that he would send more troops to the US-Mexico border to prevent immigration. The election will determine who will gain control of the Congress and influence the future policy direction.
Regarding the mid-term elections: Credit Agricole's research team discussed the USD/JPY outlook and said that if the Republican Party can hold the House and Senate, the USD/JPY will have plenty of upside.
Next week's Fed's November interest rate decision and mid-term election results are a big risk for the yen long. In fact, if the market generally expects the Democrats to win the Congress, the spread between the dollar and the yen will boost. In the case of the yen long, in addition to the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, the yen will perform better than other currencies.
Of course, if the Republican Party accidentally wins the House and Senate again, the US interest rate will be pushed up to a higher level. Except for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, the yen may perform poorly. In this case, it will look for a bullish dollar. The opportunity for the yen.
Regarding Iranian sanctions: According to Xinhua News Agency, the US government announced on the 2nd that it will restart sanctions on Iran’s energy and banking sectors on the 5th of this month. This is the second batch of sanctions against Iraq that was restarted after the United States announced its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear issue in May this year. By then, the United States will fully resume the sanctions against Iran due to the Iranian nuclear agreement.
US Secretary of State Pompeo said at a media briefing on the 2nd that the sanctions on the 5th will be aimed at Iran's energy, shipbuilding, shipping and banking industries. However, the United States will temporarily allow eight countries or regions to continue to import oil from Iran, because they have now significantly reduced Iranian crude oil imports, and the United States will give them more time to achieve "zero imports."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said at the same briefing that the Ministry of Finance will launch sanctions on more than 700 Iranian individuals and entities on the 5th, including hundreds of people who have been lifted sanctions due to the Iranian nuclear deal and more than 300 new The object of sanctions. The Global Interbank Financial Communications Association (SWIFT) platform must stop providing services to sanctioned Iranian financial institutions or face sanctions from the United States.
Monday, November 05
European Central Bank Deputy Governor Luis de Guindos, Executive Director Peter Praet, and Jan Smets delivered a speech.
The Bank of Japan announced the minutes of the September 18-19 monetary policy meeting.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda met with business leaders and delivered a speech.
European Central Bank Deputy Governor Luis de Guindos delivered a speech.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz spoke at the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce.
The euro zone finance ministers meeting to discuss deepening the integration of the euro zone, including the euro zone budget, giving the euro zone rescue fund greater power, and setting up a euro zone deposit guarantee mechanism.
Tuesday, November 06
The US midterm elections are coming, and the House and Senate will conduct elections for members.
Premier Li Keqiang will hold the third "1+6" round-table dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced interest rate resolutions and policy statements.
EU Finance Ministers Meeting.
Spain and French finance ministers discuss the challenges that the European Council will face in December, including European monetary integration and digital taxation.
Wednesday, November 07
The EIA publishes a monthly short-term energy outlook report.
The Bank of Japan’s review committee, Yukitoshi Funo, delivered a speech and met with Kochi’s corporate leaders.
Thursday, November 08
The New Zealand Federal Reserve announced interest rate resolutions and policy statements.
The Bank of Japan announced a summary of the deliberations of the members of the policy meeting on October 30-31.
European Central Bank Executive Benoit Coeure delivered a speech.
Friday, November 09
The Federal Reserve's FOMC announced interest rate resolutions and policy statements.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its quarterly monetary policy statement.
Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles spoke on bank stress testing.